New report on structural changes and AI

Artificial intelligence is expected to fundamentally transform the labour market. However, so far there are few signs that AI has led to major changes in the Swedish economy. This is shown in a new report from Uppsala University and the government agency Tillväxtanalys.

At the same time, the researchers identify a development that stands out: recent graduates from programmes in which AI is expected to play a major role have found it increasingly difficult to establish themselves in the labour market.

The report is based on register data extending to the summer of 2026 and analyses, among other things, companies’ productivity, labour market developments, and outcomes for people with different educational backgrounds.

Despite the rapid pace of technological development, the overall picture remains stable. Companies with high exposure to AI have not reduced their hiring, and people already working in occupations where AI is expected to have a major impact have, on average, continued to see their incomes rise.

For young people taking their first step into the labour market, however, the situation looks different. The analysis shows that over time it has become more difficult for recent graduates from AI-exposed programmes to secure their first job. In addition, a declining share are beginning their careers in companies where AI plays a major role.

“Since several of these programmes have historically led to well-paid jobs, it is, for the time being, the growing rate of change rather than income levels themselves that is cause for concern,” says Leo Sokolow Romin, a doctoral student at Uppsala University.